SpaceX Stock Turmoil: How $6.9B Q2 Revenue and Lockup End Impact SPCX

For investors, SpaceX’s first earnings call is a high-stakes event where spectacular growth meets the chill of a supply overhang. The $6.9B revenue forecast and 68% YoY growth are tantalizing, but the expiration of the lockup period threatens to unleash insider selling, testing the stock’s resilience.

On Tuesday, August 4, 2026, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) will report its first quarterly earnings as a publicly traded company. This is not just another earnings call; it’s the inaugural financial reveal for the largest IPO in history, making it a pivotal moment for the stock market and the commercial space industry at large. Under the ticker SPCX, shares have already seen volatility—down 3.41% ahead of the report—as investors brace for both massive growth figures and the looming end of the IPO lockup period.

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Revenue across the entire enterprise is expected to balloon to approximately $80 billion by 2027, more than quadruple the $18.7 billion recorded in 2025.

The expectations are enormous. For the second quarter of 2026, Wall Street analysts anticipate revenue reaching $6.9 billion, representing a staggering 68% year-over-year growth. This surge is anchored in two high-growth engines: Starlink satellite internet and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Starlink, which already generated 50% revenue growth in 2025 with impressive margins, is projected to be the company’s cash cow. Its low Earth orbit constellation now serves maritime, aviation, and rural broadband customers at scale. Meanwhile, the AI infrastructure segment, which includes AI compute services and X (formerly Twitter) advertising, pulled in just $3.2 billion in 2025 but is poised for acceleration following major contracts with Alphabet and Anthropic to supply cloud-based AI computing. These deals signal that SpaceX is carving a lucrative niche in the AI arms race, promising to transform data centers into profit centers.

Looking beyond the quarter, the growth narrative extends dramatically. Revenue across the entire enterprise is expected to balloon to approximately $80 billion by 2027, more than quadruple the $18.7 billion recorded in 2025. Full-year 2026 and 2027 sales are each forecast to grow around 100%, a trajectory that, if realized, would redefine SpaceX not just as a space launcher but as a dominant tech conglomerate. The market will be listening intently to CEO Elon Musk’s guidance on these fronts during the earnings call.

Simultaneously, a technical but pivotal market dynamic looms: the expiration of SpaceX’s IPO lockup period. Following the high-profile IPO earlier in 2026, early investors and insiders have been prohibited from selling their shares for a set period (typically 90–180 days). With that lockup ending around the earnings date, a significant volume of shares could be released into the market. Traditionally, such events trigger bouts of selling as venture capital backers, employees, and even Musk himself may cash in gains, creating headwinds for the stock regardless of operational performance. Historical precedents like Facebook and Uber have shown how lockup expirations can amplify volatility. This dual catalyst—earnings outperformance potentially colliding with a supply glut of shares—promises a turbulent trading session for SPCX on and after August 4.