SpaceX Q2 revenue hits $7.8B but shares sink on $18B capex shock

Investors had priced SpaceX at a lofty $1.75 trillion valuation on the belief that Starlink’s cash flows would act as a bridge to AI and next-gen rockets. The Q2 numbers dramatically tested that thesis: revenue skyrocketed, but an $18 billion capital spend—nearly six times the revenue beat—showed that the bridge is still under construction at great cost. With finance chief Bret Johnsen warning that capex will stay elevated, the market’s immediate sell-off reflects deep skepticism about how quickly these investments will generate real returns, and whether the company can hit its $100 billion run-rate by year-end without further strain on its balance sheet.

SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company laid bare both the explosive growth and staggering costs of Elon Musk’s multi-industry bet. Second-quarter revenue rocketed 92% to $7.8 billion, beating analyst estimates by roughly $1 billion, fueled by its Starlink satellite internet service and a nascent AI compute business. Starlink, which accounted for more than half of total revenue, saw its subscriber base double to 12 million and its revenue rise 66%, while AI-related revenue surged approximately 250% to $2.6 billion. Rocket launches, historically SpaceX’s core, generated $962 million in revenue but posted a $542 million operating loss. The only profitable segment was Starlink. Yet despite the top-line fireworks, shares slid as investors digested an $18 billion capital expenditure bill for the quarter—an 11-fold increase from $2.83 billion a year earlier—with over $15.83 billion plowed into AI infrastructure alone. Finance chief Bret Johnsen warned that spending would remain at elevated levels over the next couple of quarters, and management acknowledged the AI unit recorded a $1.3 billion operating loss.

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Second-quarter revenue rocketed 92% to $7.8 billion, beating analyst estimates by roughly $1 billion, fueled by its Starlink satellite internet service and a nascent AI compute business.

The earnings call underscored the core tension: SpaceX is valued at $1.75 trillion on the premise that profits from Starlink can underwrite an enormously expensive buildout of AI compute, next-generation rockets, and a V3 Starlink constellation, long enough for those ventures to become self-sustaining. Musk said that new capital deployments for AI compute would generate a payback in less than a year, and he asserted the company is “building AI compute capacity at scale faster than anyone else” while “significantly improving our AI models.” In parallel, SpaceX promised to launch at least 1,000 V3 Starlink satellites within a year and forecast reaching a $100 billion annualized revenue run-rate by December 2026—a target that assumes continued hypergrowth across all lines.