Robinhood at $97: Can a New Bull Run Push It Past $152?

For finance professionals, Robinhood’s valuation at 20x forward earnings is a battleground: the company delivered a stunning $2.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2025, but its transaction‑based model is highly sensitive to market sentiment. With the S&P 500 at 30x earnings and recession fears swirling, the key question is whether the next cyclical upswing can lift HOOD back above $152—and how to price that optionality today.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) presents a compelling but uncertain investment thesis as markets grapple with inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, and stretched equity valuations. Trading at approximately $97 as of mid-June 2026, the stock sits 36% below its October 2025 record high of $152.46, despite robust operational growth over the past five years. The core question facing investors is whether the platform’s accelerating fundamentals—explosive revenue growth, user base expansion, and surging subscription revenue—will catalyze a new all‑time high in the next bullish cycle, or if the hangover from the current pullback will persist.

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Trading at approximately $97 as of mid-June 2026, the stock sits 36% below its October 2025 record high of $152.46, despite robust operational growth over the past five years.

From 2020 to 2025, Robinhood’s annual revenue rocketed from $959 million to $4.5 billion, a compound annual growth rate near 36%. This growth was fueled by a more than doubling of funded customers—from 12.5 million to 27.0 million—and a strategic pivot toward recurring, high‑margin income streams like the Gold subscription service. Gold subscribers reached 4.2 million at year‑end 2025, up 58% year‑over‑year, each contributing $5 per month. Crucially, the company has delivered on profitability: adjusted EBITDA, which strips out stock‑based compensation and acquisition noise, turned positive in 2023, grew 167% in 2024, and expanded another 76% to $2.5 billion in 2025. This bottom‑line improvement was powered by a higher interest rate environment, elevated crypto and options trading fees, and operating leverage.

Yet, the stock’s steep decline from its peak reflects macro‑driven headwinds that directly threaten Robinhood’s transaction‑based revenue model. With the S&P 500 trading near 30 times earnings, fears of an imminent bear market are prompting a flight to safety. Lower overall equity trading volumes—a natural consequence of risk‑off sentiment—would throttle Robinhood’s main revenue engine, as would any central bank pivot toward rate cuts that compress net interest income on customer cash balances. Moreover, Robinhood’s valuation remains rich, hovering around 20 times forward earnings, which leaves little room for error if growth decelerates.