Oppenheimer Sees 18% More Upside After SpaceX's Record $75B IPO

For investors tracking the IPO market, SpaceX’s debut rewrites the record books—but the critical question is valuation. Even after a 19% first-day pop to $160.95, Oppenheimer’s $190 target argues that the company’s unique blend of vertical integration and AI assets commands a premium that past mega-IPOs never captured, potentially resetting how markets price frontier tech.

SpaceX’s historic initial public offering—priced at $135 per share to raise $75 billion—shattered every previous U.S. listing record, eclipsing Alibaba’s $21.8 billion, Visa’s $17.4 billion, and Meta’s $16 billion debuts. The stock roared to a first-day close of $160.95, a 19% surge that stretched an already heated valuation debate. Then, within days, Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan dropped the first major Wall Street analysis, initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target. That target implies roughly 18% further upside from the $160.95 close, signaling that some of the market’s most seasoned analysts believe the rally has room to run.

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listing record, eclipsing Alibaba’s $21.8 billion, Visa’s $17.4 billion, and Meta’s $16 billion debuts.

What makes Horan’s thesis especially striking is his characterization of SpaceX as “the only fully vertically integrated AI company.” This framing transcends the traditional aerospace narrative. It bundles SpaceX’s launch business, Starlink satellite internet, Starship deep-space ambitions, and a formidable data moat into a single AI-driven entity. Horan argues that SpaceX’s combination of capital, proprietary data, large language models, hardware manufacturing, and top-tier engineering talent creates a competitive moat no other company replicates. This vertical integration—from building rockets to deploying global broadband and training AI models on unique orbital data—positions SpaceX not merely as a transport company but as an infrastructure and intelligence titan.

From an investor’s perspective, the record-breaking size of the IPO and the ensuing analyst endorsement raise both excitement and caution. The $75 billion raise dwarfs all previous U.S. listings, and the stock’s immediate 19% pop reflects pent-up demand for a pure-play space economy leader. Yet valuation hurdles are enormous. With limited public trading history, SpaceX’s market capitalization already rivals the most valuable listed companies, and the $190 target—while bullish—offers only a modest cushion for risk. Investors must weigh the company’s colossal growth runway (global connectivity, lunar and Martian infrastructure, Earth observation) against execution risks in an industry where delays and technical hurdles are common.