Goldman, JPMorgan See Gulf Oil Exports at 23.3M b/d

For macro traders and energy investors, the return of almost 23 million barrels a day from the Persian Gulf changes the inflation and rates calculus. If the oil market is roughly balanced in September, as Goldman contends, the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude may have less room to run — just as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and Micron earnings land on Sept. 30. The divergence between JPMorgan's 17.5 million b/d crude-only count and Goldman's 23.3 million total including dark flows also tells investors how much of the marginal barrel is moving outside transparent reporting.

Crude oil flows from the Middle East are returning toward pre-war levels despite the persistent threat to shipping, with separate estimates from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. released on Sept. 29, 2026. JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva wrote that "the Middle East's oil export arteries are flowing again," describing the rebound as "a remarkable recovery for a region still at war" though uneven. The bank estimates crude shipments have recovered to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, while product flows like diesel and gasoline stand at only 3 million barrels a day, 58% of pre-war volumes. Goldman Sachs analysts led by Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby put total Persian Gulf exports, including so-called dark flows moved clandestinely, at 23.3 million barrels a day over the last week, consistent with the 2025 average. The reports land as the US-Iran conflict enters its eighth month and as global markets reopen on Sept. 30 with the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge and Micron Technology earnings due, both key for interest-rate and AI-trade sentiment.

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Looking forward, the key monitorable is whether Saudi Arabia can fully restore East-West pipeline capacity and whether product flows, currently at 58%, converge with crude's 98% recovery.

This recovery is concentrated in crude rather than refined products and in specific routes. JPMorgan notes that flows through the Strait of Hormuz have almost returned to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels a day, led primarily by Saudi Arabia. The kingdom has also restored approximately half the flows on its East-West pipeline following damage earlier in September to the cross-country conduit that feeds Red Sea ports. That restoration broadens Saudi Arabia's export options and reduces dependency on the narrow Hormuz chokepoint, but it does not eliminate it. JPMorgan explicitly cautioned that "higher crossings should not be mistaken for improved safety — rather, they reflect the industry's increasing ability to operate under sustained risk." This distinction is central: rising volumes are not an all-clear signal for shippers, insurers, or importers. They indicate adaptation to war risk, not a resolution of it.

The divergence between the JPMorgan and Goldman figures highlights a measurement challenge. JPMorgan's 17.5 million barrels a day covers crude only, while Goldman's 23.3 million includes total Persian Gulf exports and clandestine dark flows. The difference — more than 5 million barrels a day — is not a disagreement about supply so much as a reminder that opaque movements have become structurally important during wartime. Dark flows, which involve transshipment, AIS manipulation, or other concealment methods, complicate vessel tracking, sanctions enforcement, and price discovery. For supply-chain planners and financial analysts alike, the ability of a large portion of Gulf exports to move outside fully transparent reporting channels changes the risk calculus. It means the physical balance may look tighter or looser depending on what is counted.

Goldman's conclusion that the global oil market is roughly balanced in September is significant for price formation. If Middle East exports have rebounded to 2025 average levels, the geopolitical risk premium may be vulnerable to further compression unless supplies are disrupted anew. But the highly uneven product recovery — 58% of pre-war levels — means buyers of diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline in importing regions could still face localized tightness and higher freight costs even if crude is ample. Refined product availability is the operational link most directly felt by logistics companies, airlines, trucking fleets, and petrochemical manufacturers. A market that is balanced on a crude-oil basis can still be fragmented downstream.