Jefferies Sees India's $40-45B Space Economy Leading 6-Sector Growth Call

For market participants, Jefferies' 'India's New Industrial Revolution' report is less about a single stock and more about a sector-rotation signal. The bank's framework — six sectors, $40-45 billion in projected space revenue by 2030, and $20 billion of semiconductor capital already in motion — argues that India's structural growth is migrating from services-led to manufacturing-led, a shift that should reshape index composition, capex flows and the long-duration industrial equity complex.

Brokerage firm Jefferies has branded the next phase of India's development 'India's New Industrial Revolution,' arguing in a September 9 equity strategy report that six sectors — semiconductors, space, aerospace, electronics, solar manufacturing and data centres — are poised to become the country's next growth engines. The thesis rests on a convergence of factors: a large domestic market, existing manufacturing scale across steel, cement, automobiles and refining, deepening capabilities in mobile phone and solar module production, and a policy framework that is shifting from announcement to execution. Jefferies notes that the combination of scale, domestic demand, manufacturing capabilities and policy support is now creating a structural foundation for growth in capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries.

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Jefferies projects the sector will nearly quintuple to $40-45 billion by 2030, up from the $8.4 billion IN-SPACe recorded in 2022; more ambitious government targets point to a $44 billion space economy by 2033.

Nowhere is that shift more visible than in semiconductors. Jefferies reports roughly $20 billion of investment has already been triggered, including a chip fabrication plant under construction and several outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) projects entering production. The government has reinforced this with a second phase of incentives — Semicon 2.0 — carrying an outlay of about $13 billion (₹1.275 trillion), building on the 10 projects worth roughly ₹1.6 trillion that had been approved by April 2026, comprising two fabs and eight packaging units. Jefferies describes India as 'building the foundations of a credible semiconductor ecosystem,' though it flags real constraints: supply-chain depth, skilled talent availability and fierce global competition from established hubs in Taiwan, South Korea and the United States.

The space economy tells a similar story at an earlier stage. Jefferies projects the sector will nearly quintuple to $40-45 billion by 2030, up from the $8.4 billion IN-SPACe recorded in 2022; more ambitious government targets point to a $44 billion space economy by 2033. Momentum is measurable: private investment in the sector reached $618.5 million by March 2026, and 105 authorisations had been granted by July 2026 following the 2020 decision to open the sector and the Indian Space Policy 2023 framework. Companies including Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel, Agnikul Cosmos and Digantara are cited as moving from experimentation to execution across launch vehicles, hyperspectral imaging, small satellite launch and space situational awareness.

Data centres, electronics, solar manufacturing and aerospace complete the six-sector set. The data-centre pipeline is supported by colocation demand, tax support and government GPU purchases tied to AI infrastructure ambitions; electronics and solar manufacturing benefit from localisation requirements and production-linked incentives; aerospace rides on offset clauses and defence indigenisation. The broader context is that India is already a major global manufacturer across steel, cement, automobiles and refining, and has emerged as a significant producer of mobile phones and solar modules — giving these new sectors an existing industrial substrate.