Goldman Sachs: Gen-AI to Boost India’s Labor Productivity by 0.4pp Annually

For investors tracking emerging market dynamics, Goldman Sachs’ new forecast offers a quantifiable catalyst for India’s long-term growth trajectory. The brokerage’s baseline estimate of a 0.4 percentage point annual labour productivity uplift from generative AI directly feeds into GDP expansion and corporate earnings potential across IT services, banking, and digital infrastructure sectors. Understanding the range of outcomes—from a modest 0.1pp to a transformative 0.8pp—will be critical for asset allocation decisions as India’s equity market prices in AI-driven efficiency gains.

Goldman Sachs has issued a detailed assessment of generative AI's potential to reshape India's labour market, projecting that the technology could raise annual labour productivity growth by 0.4 percentage points on average over the next decade. This baseline forecast, which ranges from a conservative 0.1 percentage points to an optimistic 0.8 percentage points depending on how quickly AI models advance in handling complex cognitive tasks, positions Gen-AI as a material economic catalyst for the world's fifth-largest economy. The analysis, published on July 29, 2026, draws on extensive historical comparisons with previous technology adoption cycles in India, notably the IT services boom of the late 1990s and 2000s and the more recent rollout of digital public infrastructure and smartphone penetration, both of which yielded measurable productivity jumps.

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Goldman Sachs has issued a detailed assessment of generative AI's potential to reshape India's labour market, projecting that the technology could raise annual labour productivity growth by 0.4 percentage points on average over the next decade.

The report identifies two primary transmission channels through which Gen-AI will influence productivity. First, by automating routine, repetitive tasks within occupations exposed to AI, workers can redirect their efforts toward higher-value activities such as strategic analysis, supervision, and client engagement. Second, even workers who may be displaced from routine roles could see aggregate productivity improve if they are successfully redeployed into more productive sectors—a process that hinges on workforce retraining and labour market flexibility. Crucially, Goldman Sachs frames AI primarily as a complement to human labour rather than a wholesale substitute. Its estimates indicate that 42 to 48 percent of non-agricultural employment in India is likely to be augmented by Gen-AI tools, while only 8 to 12 percent faces a significant risk of substitution. The remaining workforce, predominantly in roles that are highly manual or context-dependent, is expected to remain largely unaffected over this horizon.

These figures carry profound implications for investors, policymakers, and technology providers. For the Indian economy, which has long grappled with the challenge of converting its demographic dividend into sustained high growth, a 0.4 percentage point annual uplift in labour productivity could translate into a substantial acceleration in GDP growth. If the current growth trajectory of around 6-7 percent persists, the addition of 0.4 percentage points compounds significantly over a decade, potentially lifting per capita income levels and closing the gap with higher-income Asian peers. The sectoral composition of India's labour market—still dominated by services and a vast informal sector—means that the productivity boost will likely concentrate in knowledge-intensive and digitally integrated industries such as IT, financial services, and professional services, where AI tools can be readily deployed. Manufacturing and construction may also benefit, but at a slower pace due to higher integration barriers.