Brent Hits $100.72 and BofA Sees No Iran Deal Before Midterms

For markets, the re-break above $100.72 in Brent is not merely an energy story—it is an inflation and policy event. Futures positioning, Federal Reserve rate expectations, and commodity-linked equities will be recalibrated as Bank of America analysts warn a durable U.S.-Iran deal before the midterm elections is increasingly unlikely.

On Wednesday, September 9, 2026, Brent crude jumped nearly 3% to $100.72, the first breach of the $100 threshold since July. U.S. benchmark crude gained 2.4% to $95.25, while gasoline and diesel prices rose sharply overnight. The immediate trigger was a dual escalation: the U.S. military reported striking five Iranian tankers in response to attempted missile attacks on a Navy warship, and Iranian-backed Houthi forces attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The move extends a six-month conflict that has rewritten oil market fundamentals not through a single outage but through the persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war moved about one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

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Brent traded between roughly $70 and $100 for much of March, April and May, then swung between $72 and $102 in July as markets priced rising and falling hopes that Washington and Tehran would agree on a safe-passage plan for stranded tankers.

The price action is the latest leg in a volatile cycle. Brent traded between roughly $70 and $100 for much of March, April and May, then swung between $72 and $102 in July as markets priced rising and falling hopes that Washington and Tehran would agree on a safe-passage plan for stranded tankers. Those hopes have now faded. Bank of America analysts told clients that a durable deal before the U.S. midterm elections is increasingly unlikely and could remain elusive even beyond that. With the Hormuz chokepoint effectively closed to most shipping, traders are repricing the geopolitical risk premium attached to every barrel.

The real economy is already feeling the shock. AAA data show the average U.S. gallon of regular gasoline rose 7 cents overnight to $4.22, more than a dollar above the same point last year. Diesel is even more alarming: the average gallon reached $5.94 overnight, an all-time high, and now sits 9 cents above Friday's record. Because diesel is used in shipping and production, those increases flow directly into freight surcharges, logistics costs, and eventually consumer goods. Jet fuel has become so expensive that U.S. and international carriers have cut flights while raising fares and fees. These are not abstract market moves; they are input-cost shocks spreading outward into supply chains, transportation, agriculture, construction and retail.