Q4 Earnings Outlook: Figma and Cheesecake Factory Signal Divergent Trends

The upcoming Q4 2025 earnings reports from Figma and The Cheesecake Factory represent a fascinating intersection of the modern economy: the high-growth, high-margin world of enterprise SaaS and the operationally intensive, consumer-facing restaurant sector. Figma, which has operated under intense scrutiny since its $20 billion merger with Adobe was abandoned in late 2023, is now being watched as a potential IPO candidate or a benchmark for private-to-public transitions in the AI era. Its performance will likely hinge on the adoption of its Dev Mode and the monetization of new generative AI features that aim to bridge the gap between design and production.

For Figma, the narrative has shifted from an exit strategy to sustainable dominance. Analysts are looking for evidence that the company has maintained its 40% plus year-over-year revenue growth despite a more cautious enterprise spending environment. The key metric will be Net Revenue Retention (NRR), particularly among large enterprise accounts that are currently consolidating their software stacks. If Figma can demonstrate that its platform is an essential rather than discretionary tool for product teams, it will solidify its position as the premier independent design platform. The company's ability to upsell its FigJam whiteboarding tool and its new developer-centric features will be critical for maintaining its premium valuation in a market that has become increasingly selective about software multiples.

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Figma, which has operated under intense scrutiny since its $20 billion merger with Adobe was abandoned in late 2023, is now being watched as a potential IPO candidate or a benchmark for private-to-public transitions in the AI era.

Conversely, The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) enters the earnings booth facing a different set of challenges. The casual dining sector has been buffeted by volatile commodity prices and a tight labor market throughout 2025. While CAKE has historically shown strong brand loyalty, the middle-class squeeze remains a persistent threat. Investors will be laser-focused on same-store sales growth and whether the company’s diverse portfolio—including North Italia and the Fox Restaurant Brands—can offset any softness in the core Cheesecake Factory brand. Margin preservation will be the theme of the call, as investors look for signs that menu price increases have successfully covered rising input costs without alienating the core customer base.

The divergence between these two companies highlights a broader market trend: the decoupling of tech-driven productivity from traditional service-sector growth. While Figma benefits from the scalability of software and the tailwinds of digital transformation, The Cheesecake Factory must navigate the physical realities of the supply chain and human capital. However, both companies share a common hurdle—the need to prove that their business models can thrive in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment where capital efficiency is prized over growth at any cost. The Cheesecake Factory's off-premise sales, which surged during the pandemic, are now being evaluated for their long-term contribution to the bottom line as dining room traffic stabilizes.

Looking ahead, the guidance provided by both management teams will be more influential than the Q4 numbers themselves. For Figma, any commentary on a 2026 IPO timeline or the impact of AI on seat-based pricing will be market-moving. For The Cheesecake Factory, the focus will be on the 2026 development pipeline and the potential for digital and loyalty-driven sales to become a larger, more profitable slice of the revenue pie. As the earnings season matures, these two reports will provide the data points necessary to calibrate expectations for the first half of 2026, serving as bellwethers for their respective industries.