Coinbase Jumps 4% After EBITDA Forecast Slashed 34%—Why Analysts Aren't Panicking

Equity markets sent a clear message on Wednesday: the story for Coinbase shares isn’t about near-term earnings, but about the structural maturation of crypto markets. The stock’s 3–4% gain even as William Blair gutted profit forecasts by a third suggests institutional investors see beyond the cycle trough to a future where spot Bitcoin ETFs, Base layer-2 revenue, and derivatives create a more resilient earnings base.

Coinbase shares defied gravity on Wednesday, rising roughly 3–4% even as investment bank William Blair slashed its revenue and profit forecasts for the exchange. The seemingly contradictory market reaction—stock up while estimates crater—is a signal that much of the pain from a 30% drop in Coinbase stock since its recent highs is already reflected in the share price. William Blair cut 2026 revenue estimates by 12% and 2027 by 13%, and chopped adjusted EBITDA projections by a bruising 34% for both years. Yet the Chicago-based firm held its Outperform rating, arguing that earnings are set to trough in the second half of 2026 before recovering in 2027 as spot crypto volumes bottom alongside Bitcoin. The note, authored by analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury, urged investors to “stay involved in Coinbase,” framing the current downturn as structurally different from the 2022 crypto winter. Back then, Coinbase was overwhelmingly dependent on spot trading in a hostile regulatory environment with no safety nets; today, spot Bitcoin ETFs have opened institutional floodgates, the regulatory landscape has matured, and the company has diversified its revenue base into layer-2 networks, derivatives, and prediction markets.

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William Blair projects Coinbase’s total trading volume will tumble roughly 44% this year to $669 billion, before snapping back more than 32% in 2027.

The numbers behind the downgrade are stark. William Blair projects Coinbase’s total trading volume will tumble roughly 44% this year to $669 billion, before snapping back more than 32% in 2027. The firm’s conviction stems from a belief that Bitcoin’s chart is already pointing to a volume bottom, and that when spot crypto activity rebounds, Coinbase’s expanded suite of offerings will magnify the upside. Among those, the Base layer-2 network—built on Ethereum to handle transactions faster and cheaper—is singled out as a potential major earnings driver. Retail derivatives alone crossed an annualized run rate of $200 million in the first quarter, while prediction markets have exploded around events like the World Cup, adding a new, highly engaged user segment.

Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley struck a less buoyant tone. While acknowledging that prediction markets and perpetual futures will dominate the narrative around Q2 results, he cut his price target on COIN to $155 from $170, retaining a Neutral rating. Moley warned of “significant investor attention” on these novel products, hinting at regulatory, operational, or reputational risks that could overshadow the revenue tailwinds. His caution highlights a genuine tension: the same diversification that could turn Coinbase into a resilient financial infrastructure play also exposes it to uncharted regulatory territory.