Brent Surges 3% to $78 as US-Iran Strikes Rekindle War Premium; Gold Under Rate Pressure

The weekend's US-Iran military exchange has reignited a geopolitical risk premium in crude oil, propelling Brent 3% higher to $78.09 a barrel and putting the Strait of Hormuz back in focus. For investors, the move not only signals potential supply disruptions but also revives the inflation-hawkishness that has been dogging gold. Nirmal Bang’s call for range-bound-to-lower gold reflects a market now pricing more aggressive rate hikes, a direct headwind for non-yielding assets.

A fresh wave of US-Iran military strikes has reignited geopolitical risk in energy markets, catapulting crude oil prices upward while simultaneously pressuring gold as inflation concerns stoke expectations for further interest-rate hikes. According to a research report from Indian brokerage Nirmal Bang, the renewed hostilities have placed the Strait of Hormuz back at the center of the commodity complex, creating a support floor for crude even as the risk of a wider conflict threatens global economic growth and industrial metal demand. On July 13, 2026, Brent crude surged nearly 3% to $78.09 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 2.8% to $73.31. These moves follow a 5.4% weekly gain for Brent, which briefly traded above $79, and reflect the reinsertion of a war premium that had eroded after a fragile interim peace deal.

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On July 13, 2026, Brent crude surged nearly 3% to $78.09 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 2.8% to $73.31.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply transits, remains a flashpoint. Conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran about the strait's navigability have added a layer of uncertainty. Nirmal Bang cautions that an "all-out war" could disrupt energy shipments, throttling global growth and curtailing demand for industrial commodities—specifically copper, a bellwether for economic activity and a critical metal for the energy transition. This dual threat—higher oil prices and weakening industrial demand—creates a complex environment for investors.

Gold, typically a haven during geopolitical turmoil, is not benefiting from the tensions as it has in previous crises. The brokerage notes that gold and silver prices fell on the day as the spike in energy costs revived fears of entrenched inflation, prompting markets to price in additional central bank rate increases. Higher interest rates erode the appeal of non-yielding bullion. The report squarely frames gold to trade "range-bound to lower" in the near term, a stark departure from the metal's traditional behavior during military confrontations. Silver, often moving in tandem with gold as a monetary metal, faces similar headwinds.