AI ETF Surges 23% in 2026: Nvidia and Celestica Could Soar This Earnings Season
Key Takeaways
- The AI-focused ETF has delivered 23% gains year-to-date, crushing the broader Nasdaq's 13%.
- With earnings season here, underperforming but fundamentally strong stocks Nvidia and Celestica offer compelling entry points, backed by BofA's bullish outlook on AI infrastructure spending.
Mentioned
Key Intelligence
Key Facts
- 1Global X AI & Technology ETF is up 23% year-to-date in 2026, nearly double the Nasdaq Composite's 13% gain.
- 2Nvidia shares have returned only 11% in 2026, lagging the broader AI rally despite robust demand for its data center GPUs.
- 3Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya believes AI infrastructure build-out will continue to drive the stock market for the rest of the year.
- 4Component shortages boosted shares of Micron Technology, Advanced Micro Devices, and Sandisk in the first half of 2026.
- 5Nvidia and Celestica are considered attractively valued ahead of the second-quarter earnings season, with strong bottom-line growth potential.
- 6Celestica is a key supplier in the AI infrastructure ecosystem, providing electronics manufacturing services to hyperscalers and chipmakers.
Global X AI ETF vs Nasdaq's 13%
The build-out of AI infrastructure will continue to be a driving force for the stock market for the rest of the year.
Mid-2026 market outlook
Analysis
For investors, the AI trade remains the dominant force in 2026's market, but not all boats are rising equally. The Global X AI ETF has stormed 23% higher, yet Nvidia — the engine of the revolution — has mustered just an 11% gain, while Celestica lags as an overlooked supplier. As second-quarter reports approach, these valuation gaps may close quickly if earnings confirm that the infrastructure build-out is still accelerating.
Artificial intelligence continued its dominance over the broader stock market in the first half of 2026, with the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF surging 23% year-to-date through early July, nearly doubling the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite's 13% gain. This performance underscores the sustained momentum behind AI infrastructure investment, even as some of the sector's bellwether names have lagged. Nvidia, the undisputed leader in AI chips, has managed only an 11% rise in 2026, a modest advance that belies the company's underlying earnings growth trajectory and the explosive demand for its data center GPUs. Celestica, a lesser-known but critical provider of advanced manufacturing and supply-chain solutions for AI hardware, has similarly underperformed, creating a potential opportunity as second-quarter earnings season approaches. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya points to the ongoing build-out of AI infrastructure as a primary market driver for the remainder of the year, fueled by component shortages that already lifted shares of Micron Technology, Advanced Micro Devices, and Sandisk in the first half. The tight supply of high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging has created a favorable pricing environment for those with capacity, and Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell and Rubin product cycles are expected to amplify this dynamic. Meanwhile, Celestica's role as a key partner to hyperscalers and semiconductor firms positions it to benefit from the capital expenditure wave that shows no signs of abating.
The Global X AI ETF has stormed 23% higher, yet Nvidia — the engine of the revolution — has mustered just an 11% gain, while Celestica lags as an overlooked supplier.
What to Watch
For investors, the narrative hinges on whether the earnings season will validate the elevated spending forecasts. Hyperscale cloud providers have indicated capital expenditure budgets exceeding $250 billion for 2026, much of it directed toward AI compute. Nvidia's data center revenue alone is projected to grow at a triple-digit rate, and any upside surprise could trigger a sharp re-rating of the stock, which trades at a discount to its historical multiples relative to earnings growth. Celestica, with its diversified exposure across networking, storage, and power solutions for AI clusters, is forecast to deliver mid-teens revenue growth and margin expansion. The stock's valuation, well below that of more prominent AI hardware names, could attract attention if management raises guidance.
However, risks remain. Trade tensions, particularly around semiconductor exports, and the potential for a cyclical slowdown in enterprise AI spending could temper enthusiasm. Competition from custom AI accelerators (such as Google's TPU and Amazon's Trainium) erodes Nvidia's market share in inference workloads. Celestica faces its own challenges, including customer concentration and the inherent cyclicality of electronics manufacturing. Still, the overarching trend of AI adoption across industries — from autonomous driving to drug discovery — provides a long runway. The current setup, with these two stocks trading at attractive valuations just before what could be a catalyst-rich earnings season, suggests that the AI trade is far from exhausted and may soon broaden beyond the megacap names that have dominated headlines.
Sources
Sources
Based on 3 source articles- The Motley FoolArtificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Have Crushed the Broader Market in 2026. Here Are 2 Top Stocks to Buy Before They Soar Higher This Earnings Season and BeyondJul 11, 2026
- fool.comArtificial Intelligence ( AI ) Stocks Have Crushed the Broader Market in 2026 . Here Are 2 Top Stocks to Buy Before They Soar Higher This Earnings Season and BeyondJul 11, 2026
- Harsh ChauhanArtificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Have Crushed the Broader Market in 2026. Here Are 2 Top Stocks to Buy Before They Soar Higher This Earnings Season and Beyond | The Motley FoolJul 11, 2026
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