Last mentioned: 5h ago
Markets Recoup Losses, Oil Eases
U.S. launches new airstrikes, Iran strikes U.S. allies, but stocks climb and oil falls as investors interpret Trump’s remarks as reducing the odds of a prolonged war. S&P 500 up 0.8%, Brent crude down 2.2%.
Trump Clouds Iran Truce Prospects
President Trump says the latest back-and-forth fighting with Iran will not result in 'long-term' military action, creating uncertainty about the temporary ceasefire.
Asian markets rally
Kospi recovers 2.8% to 7,863.22; Nikkei 225 +0.9% to 69,368.30; Hang Seng +1.7% to 23,444.45; Shanghai +0.7%; Taiex -0.6%; ASX 200 +1.3%.
AI chip stocks diverge
Samsung +7%, SK Hynix +4.9%, Kioxia +6.6%, while Tokyo Electron -2.5%.
US June payrolls report release
The key employment report will test the resilience of the US economy and influence bets on the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
June U.S. jobs report released
57,000 jobs added vs. 100,000 expected, signaling slower labor market and easing rate-hike pressure.
Dow Jones Industrial Average hits record close
Dow rises 1.1% to 52,900.07; S&P 500 ekes out a gain while Nasdaq drops 0.8% amid AI stock rotation.
South Korea's Kospi plunges nearly 8%
Sharp selloff in Korean equities, led by AI chip profit-taking, sets the stage for Friday’s bounce.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to speak in Europe
Speech expected to give crucial policy clues; markets will monitor for any shift in tone on rates or financial conditions.
Asian stocks edge lower after Q2 surge
MSCI Asia Pacific Index falls 0.2%, breaking a two-day winning streak. Kospi drops 2.3%, while Japan and Taiwan rise. Hong Kong closed for holiday.
Peak Inflation Forecast
Expected peak of the 2026 inflationary spike due to energy costs and base effects.
Term Commencement
Expected start date for the new Chair following Senate confirmation.
Term Expiration
Official end date of Powell's four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair.
Next FOMC Meeting
Markets anticipate continued hold or hawkish guidance.
Projected Recovery
Expected timeframe for the S&P 500 to reclaim pre-crisis highs based on historical recovery cycles.
Projected Spike Start
Economists anticipate the first signs of re-acceleration in the April inflation report.
Earnings Test
JPMorgan Chase to report Q1 results, providing clarity on consumer health and interest margins.
FOMC Minutes Due
The release of detailed meeting minutes is expected to provide deeper insight into the committee's debate over the Iran war.
Upcoming Jobs Report
Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls data will provide a broader look at hiring and wage growth.
Cut Hopes Fade
New inflation data confirms worsening trend; probability of a mid-year cut evaporates.
Markets steadied on July 9 as the S&P 500 rebounded 0.8% and Brent crude slid 2.2% after President Trump’s ambiguous comments on the U.S.-Iran conflict. The price action highlights how geopolitical risk and oil supply fears are driving equity and commodity swings, with potential knock-on effects for Fed rate policy.
Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's appointment to Anthropic's independent trust adds deep economic firepower as the $965 billion AI firm eyes a public debut, focusing his Nobel-winning expertise on AI's macro impacts.
Newmont’s 14.9% June plunge reflects gold’s swift bear market, but record Q1 cash flows and a $6B buyback signal potential deep value. Investors now weigh falling production guidance against the miner’s aggressive capital return, with Q2 earnings set to be a critical catalyst.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new record at 52,900.07, while softer-than-expected US jobs data quelled rate-hike anxiety. Asian markets surged on the news, with the Kospi bouncing 2.8% from a steep selloff, as oil prices below pre-Iran-war levels bolstered the disinflation narrative.
Softer-than-expected June payrolls of likely 57,000 tanked rate-hike odds, igniting a broad risk rally. Bitcoin jumped 2.19% to $61,460 while the Dow soared 594 points to a record close of 52,900, signaling a macro-driven rotation into rate-sensitive assets.
Asian equities edged lower on June 30 as investors digested a robust Q2 rally driven by AI and US economic resilience, with the MSCI Asia Pacific falling 0.2% and South Korea’s Kospi tumbling 2.3%. Attention now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming speech and the US payrolls report, which could dictate near-term interest rate expectations. Selective positioning is advised amid elevated valuations and volatility.
Defying a Middle East war and rate-hike fears, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their biggest quarterly gains since 2020, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leaping 21%. Strong corporate earnings and US economic resilience drove the rally, but oil-driven inflation concerns and a stalled ceasefire could test the momentum in the second half.
S&P Global's June PMI rose to a five-month high of 52.2, but the services sector weakness prompted economists to cut 2026 GDP growth to 2%, casting doubt on the sustainability of the manufacturing-led expansion.
A resilient U.S. consumer is propping up GDP and confounding rate-cut expectations. With 83% seeing higher prices yet only 38% intending to cut, personal consumption expenditures remain robust, benefiting select fintech and retail stocks but keeping the Fed cautious on policy easing.
Investors face a pivotal week as FedEx and Micron report earnings while the Fed’s annual stress test for 32 banks looms. With FedEx trading at 17 times earnings and Micron near record highs, results could trigger sharp stock moves. The stress test results, in a hawkish rate environment, may dictate how much capital banks can return to shareholders.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first press conference shocked markets by prioritizing inflation-fighting over easing, causing traders to rapidly shift from pricing near-zero odds of a rate hike to betting on tightening by September. His abandonment of detailed forward guidance adds a new layer of volatility risk for interest-rate-sensitive assets.
The interim US-Iran peace deal sent crude prices tumbling but failed to fully calm markets as hawkish Fed signals pushed bond yields higher. The Nikkei 225 breached 71,000 for a record close, while the S&P 500 slid 1.21% overnight. Investors now weigh a fragile geopolitical calm against rising rate expectations.
The Producer Price Index jumped 6.5% year-over-year in May, sending shockwaves through financial markets. Futures now imply a 60% probability of a Fed rate hike by October, threatening to derail equity rallies and push bond yields higher.
With the Fed expected to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75%, expensive capital is forcing investors to hunt for real earnings. Alphabet delivered a 19% search ad revenue gain and a 63% cloud surge in Q1 2026, plus a $462B backlog. Such durability makes it a safe harbor in a selective market.
Producer inflation accelerated to 6.5% year-over-year, the highest since 2022, driven by energy costs. The PPI-CPI gap signals persistent price pressures that could delay Fed rate cuts and shift asset allocation.
CoStar's Q1 2026 earnings show a 15% revenue jump, signaling strong investor confidence in real estate tech, while Humana's 5% decline adds market volatility. Finance professionals should note the implications for stock valuations and economic trends, particularly in interest rate-sensitive sectors.
Bank of America's equity strategy team argues that the recent tech sector sell-off is disconnected from underlying fundamentals and earnings growth. The bank maintains that the sector's 'fortress balance sheets' and AI-driven structural shifts provide a safety net that the market is currently overlooking.
Global institutional investors are recalibrating portfolios to manage extreme volatility stemming from the escalating conflict in Iran. As 'Big Money' navigates market whiplash, the focus has shifted toward sophisticated hedging in energy futures and defensive positioning in safe-haven assets.
Global currency markets have entered a period of consolidation as investors await clarity on US-led diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict with Iran. The lack of a definitive breakthrough has suppressed volatility, leaving major currency pairs range-bound amid shifting geopolitical risk premiums.
Asian markets trended upward on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, as investors reacted to a combination of cooling global inflation and targeted regional stimulus measures. The broad-based gains reflect a growing consensus that major central banks may be nearing a pivot toward more accommodative monetary policies.
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