# CME FedWatch

Type: Product

Source: Finance Intelligence Brief — https://getfinancebrief.com/entity/cme-fedwatch
Canonical HTML page: https://getfinancebrief.com/entity/cme-fedwatch

## Timeline

- **2026-09-04**: August jobs report exceeds expectations — Labor Department reports 162,000 jobs added, triggering a sharp re-pricing of Fed rate expectations.
- **2026-09-04**: Market odds of Fed hike rise — CME FedWatch shows probability of a quarter-point hike climbing from about 50% to over 58% by afternoon.
- **2026-09-04**: Trump threatens trade retaliation — President Trump posts on Truth Social that he will stop trading with deficit countries if the Fed does not lower rates.
- **2026-09-04**: Diesel hits all-time high — AAA reports national average diesel price reaches $5.85, adding to inflation risks.

## Recent coverage (3 stories)

### 162K Jobs Beat Lifts Sept Rate-Hike Odds to 60.4% as Stocks Slip
2026-09-05 08:50:45 · Sentiment: Bearish · Impact: 6/10 · Sources: 2

August payrolls came in at 162,000, far above the 65,000 consensus, pushing September rate-hike odds to 60.4% and sending stocks lower. The surprise repositions the Fed's Sept. 16 meeting as a live tightening catalyst for markets.
Full story: https://getfinancebrief.com/story/jobs-report-162k-rate-hike-odds-stocks-slip

### Jobs Report Adds 162K; Trump Threatens Trade Cut Over Fed Rates
2026-09-05 04:39:29 · Sentiment: Bearish · Impact: 7/10 · Sources: 2

A stronger-than-expected 162,000 job gain pushed market odds of a Fed hike above 58%, provoking President Trump to threaten trade retaliation against deficit countries unless rates fall. The collision of labor strength, record $5.85 diesel, and political pressure raises volatility risk for rate-sensitive assets.
Full story: https://getfinancebrief.com/story/jobs-report-trump-trade-threat-fed

### Fed Rate-Hike Odds Hit 65% as Waller Ties Vote to Sept. 11 CPI
2026-09-04 01:33:08 · Sentiment: Neutral · Impact: 7/10 · Sources: 2

Markets now price a 65% chance the Fed hikes this month after Christopher Waller said the Sept. 11 CPI print will decide his vote. A hot reading could cement a hike at the Sept. 15-16 FOMC, while a cool print could unwind this week's yield surge and mortgage-rate spike.
Full story: https://getfinancebrief.com/story/fed-hike-odds-65-waller-sept-11-cpi

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