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Four-Year Anniversary
Ukraine marks 48 months of war; focus shifts to long-term reconstruction and frozen asset utilization.
Three-Year Mark
Conflict enters a war of attrition phase with static frontlines and high defense spending.
Grain Initiative Collapse
Russia exits the Black Sea Grain Initiative, forcing Ukraine to develop alternative export routes.
Energy Decoupling
Nord Stream pipelines are disabled; Europe accelerates its pivot away from Russian gas.
Full-Scale Invasion
Russia launches invasion, triggering immediate global commodity price spikes.
As the conflict enters its fifth year with frontlines largely static, the global economy has transitioned from acute shock to a structural 'war footing' characterized by fragmented energy markets and massive reconstruction liabilities. The frozen nature of the conflict presents a unique set of long-term risks for commodity pricing and European fiscal stability.
Russia's transition to a total war economy has triggered a systemic fiscal crisis, with massive military expenditures hollowing out long-term growth prospects. As the conflict enters its fourth year, the Kremlin faces an unsustainable choice between funding the front lines and maintaining domestic social stability.