Last mentioned: 3d ago
Market Reaction
Prediction market operators signal intent to maintain operations in contested states following federal support.
CFTC Intervention
Chairman Selig publishes an op-ed asserting exclusive CFTC jurisdiction over prediction markets.
State Legal Surge
Nevada and other states intensify legal actions to ban Kalshi and Polymarket as illegal gambling.
Administration Change
Trump administration takes office; Michael Selig is later appointed as CFTC Chairman.
Federal Reserve researchers have identified Kalshi's prediction market data as a vital tool for real-time monetary policy guidance. The study emphasizes that the platform's intraday dynamics provide a more granular and immediate view of market expectations than traditional financial instruments.
The Trump administration, through the CFTC, has formally backed prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, challenging state-level attempts to ban the platforms as illegal gambling. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction, a move that could fundamentally reshape the regulatory landscape for sports betting and event-based derivatives.